Entrance Poll Results: A Snapshot and Ranked Ballot Demonstration

The TinyTRA Entrance Poll closed on Sunday, October 11, and the results are in. In addition to providing the numbers, we want to be upfront about what they are and what they are not.

The Models and the Results

The upcoming election in Tiny uses the first-past-the-post (FPTP) model where voters select one candidate for each office (or three (3) in the case of councillors in this election) and the candidate with the greatest number of votes wins. We have conducted this poll using a ranked ballot, single transferable vote (SVT), model and have analyzed the results using both the FPTP model and the ranked ballot SVT model (the latter is discussed further below).

First-Past-the-Post Model

The FPTP analysis is based on the first-choice selections for each office, which are as follows:

Mayor (4 candidates)

Candidate First choices

1. David Kohler (50.0%)

2. Dave Brunelle (35.2%)

3. Chuck Stradling (7.8%)

4. David Evans (7.0%)

Deputy Mayor (3 candidates)

Candidate First choices

1. Karen Zulynik (48.6%)

2. Rob Panasiuk (42.3%)

3. Sean Miskimins (9.1%)

Councillors (12 candidates, 3 seats)

Candidate First choices

1. Don Anthony (22.6%)

2. Jessie Garland (21.4%)

3. Ray Millar (15.9%)

4. David Sparrock (11.9%)

5. John Bryant (9.9%)

6. Stephen MacNamara (6.7%)

7. Steffan Walma (3.2%)

8. Mario Galluzzo/Kelly Peter Helowka (2.4%)

9. Laura A. Hughes (1.6%)

10. Irene Jankowski (1.2%)

11. Reynold Waters (0.8%)
    

    Pdfs of the full results, including every round of counting, are posted below. Ballots were ranked and counted using Scottish STV, and automatically tallied using OpaVote's tools.

Limitations and Observations Regarding the Poll

Turnout was lower than we hoped

We expected more participation, and we are not sure why we didn't get it. Here is how it broke down:

• 1,178 voters were invited

• 938 unique email opens

• 288 unique visits to the ballot

• 256 ballots cast

• 922 invitations went unanswered

That is a response rate of about 22% of those invited. We can only guess at the reasons. The Thanksgiving long weekend almost certainly played a part. A ranked ballot with twelve councillor candidates may also have put some people off. We don't know, and we won't pretend to.

How big is the sample?

Our 256 ballots represent about 1.27% of the 20,108 eligible voters in Tiny. That appears small. It is important to note though, typical national election poll surveys a thousand or so people out of tens of millions, which is a tiny fraction of one percent of the electorate. By that measure, our poll reaches a larger share of its electorate than most national polls do. The bigger issue is that this also a self-selected cohort, rather than a random and representative sample of the eligible voters in Tiny.

Who took the Poll?

What matters most is who responded. Our poll was open to people who signed up with TinyTRA, as well as non-members who signed up to keep abreast of the election through the tiny2026 initiative (in each case prior to the poll being sent out). It seems likely that many of those who joined did so during the Stop the Build campaign.and have cast votes while with those sentiments while other people who support the 45m Shoreline Bylaw, as a possible example. would not appear to be well represented in these results. National pollsters work hard to build samples that mirror the whole population. Ours is a self-selected group, and its views will lean accordingly.

What a poll is for

A poll is a picture of a particular group of people at a particular moment. It can show what that group is thinking, where the conversation stands, and which questions are worth asking. It can't tell you what the whole community will do on election day, and we are not presenting it that way.

Ranked Ballot SVT Model

As noted above, even though the election in Tiny uses the FPTP model, we support the wider use of the ranked ballot model and have conducted this poll on OpaVote using its implementation of the Scottish STV ranked ballot model.

The advantages of ranked ballot voting include:

• Sincere voting: You can rank your true favourite first without fear of “splitting the vote,” so tactical voting is largely unnecessary.

• More effective voting: Voting is more effective as votes for eliminated candidates automatically move to voters’ next preference instead of being discarded.

• Less tribalism: Candidates need transfers from other candidates’ voters, which rewards broader appeal and less tribal campaigning.

The full results of the poll, including every round of counting, are posted below. Ballots were ranked and counted using Scottish STV, and automatically tallied using OpaVote's tools.

Please read these results for what they are: a snapshot of the voter intentions of TinyTRA's members who chose to take part. They are not a forecast, and they are not an endorsement of any candidate. The only result that counts is the one on election day, so please make a plan to vote.

Thank you to everyone who took part, and to all of the candidates for their engagement throughout this process.

CONTACTS

info@tinytra.ca